Whole Numbers Half Truths?? Private Truth Public lies??

 This is a very tough topic to write on and the title of this blog is based on the title of two books Whole numbers half truths which I have read a while ago and another book Private Truth Public lies which I have read a summary of without reading it on account of it being a book published in 1997 and it being a bit expensive to buy. 

A fundamental flaw of human beings is our propensity to judge people instantly and see them based on our own belief systems and preferences. Besides this our upbringing environment and the present climate of fake news and spread of lies makes this exercise of sifting the truth from falsehood a difficult if not impossible task. 

Another difficulty lies in the unalienable fact that the search engines and google algorithms feed us what we want to hear and there is no way of verifying the truth in this complex world. Data is the new oil is the oft repeated slogan heard in the present day and the data scientist who can analyze this without putting on a glass of left and right on their eyes are indeed rare to find. One such analyst in India is Rukmini S whose book tends to tell us many things which are contrary to what common gossip and media would have us believe. 

India is an extremely vast and diverse country which is certainly composed of multitudes and therefore it is often said that whatever statement you make about India, the opposite is often equally true. While the book has many examples I will take a few parameters not necessarily from the book and try and change our perceptions based on facts. 

Population of India is a problem. We are just too many people is that which was dinned into our heads in childhood. This is what we were taught and we were made to understand that unless we stopped multiplying we faced a disaster and famines galore as numbers grew exponentially but resources grow arithmetically. Hum Do Hamare Do, Nirodh and its importance was something we grew up with but this prediction never came true. Technology and economic progress changed the scene totally. The realisation that economic development and literacy especially of the woman is the solution dawned on us recently. The measure of total fertility rate dropping in the states of the country across the board based on development parameters made short work of the mischievous lie that Muslims with higher fertility rates and multiple marriages will soon make India a Muslim majority country. Young India will see population rise by 1% but after a few decades this will start dropping and the peak 165 million by 2050 and drop to 110 million by the end of the century. 

Another myth relates to the feeling that Love marriages in India are on the rise. This is not substantially true as majority of the youngsters marry based on the arranged choice of parents. Inter-religious and inter caste marriages are an exception and rare and outliers despite the fact that stories of such marriages make headlines. Live in relationships are extremely uncommon. India is a conservative society and this is no different in the rural or urban areas of India. 

About rape the data suggests a high acquittal rate in cases reported, which may suggest that the investigation or judicial laws are faulty. The real reason is that majority of these cases are of consensual relationships where rape charges are pressed by parents of the girl to prevent the marriage. If this seems to give false comfort the data suggests a large amount of under reporting on account of stigma of being a rape victim and also of the high and mighty prevent reporting of rape. 

The problem of religious and caste polarization is more complex. While there is some degree of polarization in voting but people on personal level have no animosity against the other but they tend to want to live within their own types leading to a culture ghettoisation of Muslims. Even money power does not overcome this problem. 

If we believe that India is rapidly urbanizing this is not as true as we are led to believe a only 31% of our population lives in cities. Only 5% live in a city where they were not born. Spending more than just Rs. 8500/- per month makes you among the top 5% persons in urban India. 

The underreporting of deaths during the Covid pandemic is a case in point. Around 5,00,000 death were reported but based on the stats from crematoria etc. the deaths were more in the range of 50,00,000. This was due to unde testing and getting data predominantly from public hospitals and registered private hospitals ad excluding the unorganised hospital and small clinic numbers. Wrong numbers lead to wrong decisions and bad choices. We therefore were slow off the blocks in vaccinating our people despite being a giant vaccine manufacturer. 

Now we come to the other point of what is termed as the difference between what we privately consider true but publicly we lie or do not express this on account of fear of reprisal or even merely not wanting to stand out as different from the majority. Many of us believe that the present fractures in society which we believe are created by our politicians are not as such but have always existed privately as inherent biases but which we suppressed because w did not see others expressing these views. As soon as we saw some elements saying openly and hating the others many joined the band wagon. And to ensure that they were heard among the crowd became shriller and more provocative in their statements. But, when these protagonists met as individuals they were friends indeed. This is brought out in a book which I have never read but I may read. Private Truths Public lies by Timur Kuran. 

So human behaviour is complex and cannot be easily fathomed. We need to examine all that we hear and not forward anything coming from unauthenticated sources. Relying on accurate data is a challenge tough to overcome but worth the struggle in the interest of democracy, human progress and welfare. 

Vispi Jokhi