War in 1971 and War in 2025

 I was rudely awakened a few days back to a notification of a kind where we were suddenly told to be part of a mock drill to ensure that we are war ready. I can only say one thing that my reading of our world was that in the last 40 years or so man has reached a situation where famines, wars and pandemics were becoming more and more infrequent. This is also borne out by the fact that as man has advanced technologically, his power of imagination and ability to believe in a false order makes him capable of unprecedented collaboration and therefore renders the possibility of conflict becoming more remote than ever before. The doctrine of deterrence  and the threat of mutual destruction was a boon for the arms race and the ammunition industry, but yet paradoxically it reduced the possibility of their use. 

In 2019-20, the covid 19 pandemic came from nowhere and engulfed the world with a deadly virus which was so virulent and so infective that it killed the vulnerable like moths dying because of their attraction to light. Many old persons literally did not believe or heed the warnings of doctors and succumbed to the virus. However, unlike the Spanish flue pandemic, the ability of the world to mass produce drugs and PPE's and devise guidelines and treatment of the disease, discover what works and doesn't and fast track a vaccine for mass production meant that despite fudged figures the loss of lives was not as great as a century back in terms of percentage of population dead. In fact it is validated by studies which said that while Covid was a killer it killed less than many usual killers.

Cut to 1971, a 11 year old impressionable boy with a sense of patriotism was excited and was following the war like war games literally waiting for newspapers and radio news from All India Radio. I used to swallow the information like gospel truth and although there maybe disinformation we looked to the Indian army as a disciplined perfect force on an evangelical mission to vanquish the enemy and destroy the camps and tankers of the enemies like as though they were flies to be swatted in a video game of today. I still remember the tensions building up to war and the images of Indira Gandhi as a woman and leader not getting overawed by the likes of President Nixon or Mr. Henry Kissinger who were literally trying to bully and arm twist India. The night the war was declared we were travelling from my kaka's house in bora bazar street to Parel by BEST bus and we noticed street lights were off and the buses were told to dim lights and a discussion among passengers may have occurred. All I could see were concerns and fear. The very next day I think we had a school holiday and many of us went to Popat Vania shop which exists till today to buy brown paper and gum. The whole morning was spent cutting the paper to the glass size and sticking them on all the window glasses. It was a 13 day war and I just suspended my studies as thou the result of the war depended on my prayers goodwill and the news. I distinctly remember the blackouts and one night in particular where the war escalated to the extent that Mumbai was in danger. We were given a siren sound different from a long siren signifying the need to leave the house and gather on ground floor next to a wall so in case a building is bombed the triangle principle helps survival. I remember in the tense atmosphere my dad telling neighbours that we should have bought  snacks like peanuts to pass time. 

Cut to 2025, war is not yet declared and thrice in the recent past few years India has used technology to strike back and claim with some degree of credibility that she has the ability to target specific terrorist camps. Alike to US hunting out and killing Osama Bin Laden we too can attack terrorists specifically. This is quite different from the past where Pakistani rulers would claim terrorists were freedom fighters and non state actors over which they had no control. Now nobody accepts this differentiation. I think going back to the first paragraph of my blog technology has once again come to the rescue and the precision of India's air defence capabilities and air offence capabilities have helped in preventing the war spiralling out of control. However, my only concern is that if our intelligence and defence capability is so good should we not have prevented the Pahalgam attack in the first place. Also, do terrorists have enough local support and ability to penetrate Indian territory and do such attacks? 

Finally, this conspiracy of politicians orchestrating events to create national advantages for their constituents. I know this is not the right time or atmosphere to think along these lines but the fact is that wars do boost economies and sale of arms and ammunition is big business. The advertisement of the Rafale jets and Agni as against the failure of Fateh II. Our air defence systems vs the Chinese ones, our drones which strike precisely and capably vs the turkish made Pakistani drones which were shot down by the Indian air defence systems like playing video games in the sky. I feel sure all this is real but at the end of the day we live in a world where fake news and creating content which suits the narrative has become a norm rather than exception. At this point of time notwithstanding my political views I think we must accept that our technologically superior ability and well trained personnel have certainly got the better of Pakistan and hopefully driven some sense into them. But finally the only answer is dialogue and negotiations. 

At present I believe ultimately a stalemate will be reached till the next cycle of retaliation and counter retaliation till one day an erroneous data may trigger a self destructive nuclear calamity. At that time and after it there will be no survivors and if there are any they will be cursing the fact that they lived to tell a tale of reckless posturing and finally proving to the world the truth of the statement that “An eye for an eye makes the world blind”. We get the leaders we deserve when we elect hardliners and hawks we will get dangerously close to Self Destruction.

In the meanwhile there are quite a few who see the futility of war and want to have peace and dialogue. You may join that tribe of the few if you believe it is worth your while. https://www.change.org/p/india-pakistan-stop-the-hostilities?source_location=petition_update_page. But for now let us hope that the soldiers and civilians on the border can retreat and reach a state of uneasy calm leading to lasting peace.

Vispi Jokhi